Summer heat is estimated to have caused 50,391 deaths across 854 European urban areas in 2026, with roughly 32,600 of those deaths linked to human-caused climate change, according to research led by the London School of Hygiene & Tropical Medicine and Imperial College London. The studies, published in Nature Health, indicate the highest heat-related death toll in the cities analysed since at least 2000.
The researchers examined daily temperatures from June through August in urban areas across the 27 European Union countries, the United Kingdom, Norway and Switzerland. Those areas represented about 40% of the population across the 30 countries. The figures are modelled estimates based on temperature and mortality data, not a count of death certificates recording heat as the cause.
The estimated toll was substantially higher than in the previous worst summers in the analysis: about 29,480 deaths in 2022 and 28,462 in 2003. Researchers attributed around 65% of the 2026 estimate — 32,619 deaths — to warming caused by human activity. Nearly one-third of the estimated deaths occurred between 17 June and 1 July, when average daily temperatures in the study areas were more than 5°C above the 1991–2020 average.
The authors say the findings point to a need for both faster emissions cuts and practical protection against extreme heat. Measures include heat-health warning systems, more shade and green space in cities, better-prepared homes and healthcare facilities, and targeted support for people most at risk. The study’s urban coverage means it does not represent a complete death toll for Europe.
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