Dutch semiconductor equipment maker ASML could generate the equivalent of 1.6% of the Netherlands’ gross value added this year, while its broader economic footprint may reach 2.2% when domestic suppliers and investment are included, according to an ING Research estimate published on Monday, October 26.
The direct contribution estimate has risen from 1.3% in 2025. ING’s calculation uses the midpoint of ASML’s 2026 revenue outlook, €44.5 billion, and reflects the company’s central role in supplying advanced chipmaking equipment as demand for artificial intelligence infrastructure grows.
The gains also bring a concentration risk. A downturn in semiconductor investment, tighter export restrictions linked to US-China tensions, interruptions to overseas component supplies and shortages of skilled workers could all constrain further expansion. ING points to the experience of Nokia in Finland as a warning about the risks of relying heavily on one technology champion.
ASML is expanding its presence in the Eindhoven region. The company began building a new industrial campus in September; its first phase is expected to be completed in 2029 and will accommodate at least 3,000 employees, largely relocating from existing locations.
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