Global average surface temperature from January to September 2026 was about 1.47°C above the 1850–1900 pre-industrial average, putting the year on course to rank among the four warmest on record. A new climate assessment released on 9 November as the UN climate conference COP31 opened in Antalya also found record ocean heat and sea levels, while warning that a strengthening El Niño could raise extreme-weather risks into 2027.
The past 12 years have each ranked among the warmest measured, and 2023–2026 are expected to make up the four hottest years in the record. The temperature assessment draws on nine internationally recognised datasets.
El Niño may amplify risks into 2027
El Niño has intensified since August and is expected to reach exceptional strength by December. The phenomenon releases heat stored in the ocean and can raise the likelihood of heatwaves, drought and heavy rainfall. Its influence is forecast to continue into early 2027.
Ocean heat and sea level at record highs
Global mean sea level reached a new high in 2026, with June, July and August recording the highest levels since satellite measurements began in 1993. Heat stored in the upper 2,000 metres of the oceans set a record in 2025 and continued to rise in preliminary data for 2026. The planet’s energy imbalance also reached its highest observed level in 2025 since monitoring began in 1960.
Europe’s human cost
Preliminary estimates attribute more than 30,000 excess deaths in Europe in 2026 to heatwaves, drought and wildfires. The events also affected agriculture, energy and transport. The number of countries with multi-hazard early-warning systems rose from 56 in 2015 to 136 in 2025.
