Global temperatures, ocean heat and sea levels remain at exceptional levels, while a powerful El Niño is expected to intensify the risks of extreme weather well into 2027. A new global climate assessment released on Monday puts 2026 on track to rank among the four warmest years ever recorded.
The global mean near-surface temperature from January to September was about 1.47°C above the 1850–1900 pre-industrial average. The period from 2023 to 2026 is expected to comprise the four warmest years on record, while each of the past 12 years has ranked among the warmest since measurements began.
El Niño could amplify risks into 2027
El Niño has strengthened since August and is expected to reach exceptional intensity by December. The climate pattern does not create additional heat in the Earth system; it releases heat stored in the oceans. It typically raises the annual global average temperature by around 0.1°C to 0.2°C and can shift rainfall patterns, increasing the likelihood of heatwaves, drought and heavy rainfall into early 2027.
The assessment, published by the World Meteorological Organization (WMO), says the Earth’s energy imbalance reached its highest level since monitoring began in 1960. Oceans absorb about 90% of the excess heat. Global mean sea level also reached a record high in 2026, while ocean heat content in the upper 2,000 metres set a record in 2025 and continued to rise in preliminary data for this year.
More than 30,000 excess deaths estimated in Europe
The impacts are already being felt. Preliminary estimates indicate that heatwaves, drought and wildfires caused more than 30,000 excess deaths in Europe in 2026. Extreme events also placed pressure on agriculture, energy and transport. Glaciers continued to lose mass, and global freshwater storage has declined since 2014.
The update was released on the opening day of the UN climate conference COP31 in Antalya, Türkiye. It uses data available through September 2026 and therefore does not yet capture the latest effects of the strengthening El Niño. The WMO’s final State of the Global Climate report for 2026 is scheduled for March 2027.
